China's carbon emissions: a surprising trend and a global impact.
A recent analysis has uncovered a remarkable fact: China, the world's largest polluter, has managed to stabilize or even reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over the past 18 months. This is a significant development, as it suggests that China might have reached its peak CO2 emissions target sooner than anticipated, offering a glimmer of hope in the battle against climate change.
But here's the surprising part: this achievement is largely due to the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources. In the third quarter of this year, solar power generation increased by a staggering 46%, while wind power grew by 11%. This surge in clean energy has helped balance out the country's energy sector emissions, despite a rising demand for electricity.
China's commitment to renewable energy is evident. In the first nine months of this year, they added an impressive 240GW of solar capacity and 61GW of wind power, putting them on course to break another renewable energy record in 2025. In 2024, China installed more solar power than the rest of the world combined, a testament to their ambitious clean energy goals.
The analysis, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) for Carbon Brief, revealed that China's CO2 emissions in the third quarter of 2025 were unchanged from the previous year. This is partly attributed to declining emissions in the travel, cement, and steel industries, which are traditionally high-emitting sectors.
This news comes at a critical time as global leaders assemble in Brazil for Cop30, a conference addressing the escalating climate crisis. Notably, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump were both absent from the leaders' summit, although the Chinese delegation is participating in the talks.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that failing to limit global heating to 1.5C would be a 'moral failure and deadly negligence'. Meanwhile, Cop30 President André Corrêa do Lago commended China's progress in green technologies, highlighting the widespread availability and competitiveness of solar panels compared to fossil fuels.
However, the story isn't entirely positive. Lauri Myllyvirta, Crea's lead analyst, cautioned that China's overall emissions trend for 2025 could still show a slight increase, depending on the final quarter's performance. Additionally, certain sectors, like transport, are experiencing a 10% growth in oil demand and emissions, due to the increased production of plastics and chemicals.
China's dual carbon goals, which include peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving net neutrality by 2060, are ambitious. However, their latest climate targets, released in September, have been criticized by experts as too conservative to prevent a global catastrophe. These targets aim to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% of their peak by 2035, which falls short of the 30% cut experts believe is necessary.
Interestingly, China has a history of setting modest climate targets but exceeding them. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub, suggests that these targets should be viewed as a starting point rather than the limit of their ambition.
As the world watches, China's 15th five-year plan, which will outline the government's priorities and policies for 2026-2030, is highly anticipated. Although the full text won't be released until next year, officials have hinted at a strong focus on low-carbon energy systems. This plan could be a pivotal moment in China's journey towards a greener future and a turning point in the global fight against climate change.
